Thursday, March 6, 2008
Going Negitive All the Way
Wednesday, March 5, 2008
Possible filler
Maybe I could get a segment out of it. Or maybe just some b-roll of the Capitol. Or footage of the police arresting me for sleeping in my car. No matter what, I'll have some kind of footage.
I'm not leaving until Friday morning, though, so if anybody has any suggestions, let me know.
Taking the lead...
Tuesday, March 4, 2008
Delegate Calculator
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/the-trail/2008/03/04/clinton_down_but_not_out_for_t.html?hpid=topnews
Clinton Down, But Not Out, For the Count
By Peter Baker
Forget Wii. The real computer game for those of us mesmerized by Ohio and Texas today is located over on the site of our corporate cousin, Slate. As Dan Balz mentions in this morning's "8 Questions" that could be answered by today's primaries, "every political junkie around the country is spending hours with Slate's delegate calculator on the Internet or with more complex spreadsheets that are being passed around by e-mail." We think he meant us!
Slate's delegate calculator is reasonably simple but ingenious. It lists all the remaining Democratic contests, starting with the four today - Texas, Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont - all the way through Puerto Rico on June 7. You can plug in what percentage of the vote you think Sens. Hillary Rodham Clinton (N.Y.) and Barack Obama (Ill.) will win in each of these states and the calculator then tells you how many pledged delegates each of them will have at the end of the primary season.
It doesn't actually take hours playing with it to understand just how deep a hole Clinton really is in. On the surface, it wouldn't seem like she's that far behind even before the two big primaries that she may win today. After all, by the count of NBC News, which is what Slate uses as its basis, Obama has 1,192 pledged delegates and Clinton has 1,036, a difference of just 156. (This does not include the much-discussed superdelegates, but let's leave them aside for the moment.) Given that a candidate needs 2,025 delegates to win the nomination, it would seem the contest is still very tight.
But let's go ahead and plug in some numbers. Let's assume Clinton wins three of four states today -- Ohio, Rhode Island and Texas. And let's assume she wins by the average of recent polls, as tabulated by the Web site, Real Clear Politics, and split the undecided evenly between the candidates. That would mean she would win Rhode Island with 55 percent, Ohio with 54 percent and Texas with 51 percent. Obama would take Vermont with 60 percent, judging by the latest polling. That would obviously be a great night for Clinton and one that she hopes would revive her flagging campaign. She would prove that she continues to win the big states even if Obama still has the lead among delegates and it would raise questions about why he has not been able to close the deal.
If all of that happens, then, what would Clinton need in the remaining contests to catch up among pledged delegates? There are a dozen contests still to come after today, starting with Wyoming on Saturday and Mississippi next Tuesday. Then you have Pennsylvania on April 22, followed over the next few weeks by Guam, Indiana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Kentucky, Oregon, Montana, South Dakota and finally Puerto Rico. Working the Slate calculator, she would need to win 62 percent in each of those states to pass Obama in pledged delegates, giving her a total of 1,605 to 1,604.
For starters, the idea that she would win, say, Mississippi or North Carolina may be a stretch under any circumstance. The latest polls show Obama with a double-digit lead in North Carolina, while Mississippi has similar demographics as other Southern states that he has won in landslides. But even assuming she could win those two states, to understand just how steep a hill it would be for Clinton to get 62 percent in the remaining states, all you have to know is that she has gotten that much in only one state in all the voting so far -- her onetime adopted home of Arkansas. Even in New York, where she is the sitting senator, she won 57 percent. She won 55 percent in Michigan where Obama was not even on the ballot.
Now, the Slate calculator is imperfect, of course, and the vagaries of caucuses and delegate rules and so forth mean this analysis is inexact. And this does not include Florida and Michigan, whose delegates were ruled ineligible by the Democratic National Committee because those states held primaries earlier than allowed under party rules -- delegates Clinton would like to seat since she won those states. But you get the point. And this is why the Obama camp remains confident that they will finish the primary season with a lead among pledged delegates no matter what happens today.
Of course, there are nearly 800 superdelegates and the Clinton camp hopes victories today would give it enough momentum to keep those party elders from flocking to Obama at least until Pennsylvania. If Clinton could prove in the interim that Obama is a paper tiger and not up to the scrutiny a front-runner invariably attracts, her strategists think the superdelegates will decide they have to go with her for the sake of the party.
It's a big gamble and few at Clinton's headquarters in Arlington are fooling themselves about the odds. But this year has shown that anything can happen and politics are not so neat and predictable as we might think. Or at least not as neat and predictable as Slate's delegate counter.
http://www.slate.com/features/delegatecounter
Only 5 hours to Canada
Monday, March 3, 2008
I feel your pain?
Do you think by trying to avoid making a "good feeling," that Hillary is on the right track?
I think that even though people say they are interested in the issues, in the end it's the emotion that wins votes.
Clinton races to Ohio primary
WESTERVILLE, Ohio (AP) -- Hillary Rodham Clinton is toughening
the rhetoric as Tuesday's crucial primaries near.
Clinton is sweeping across Ohio, telling supporters her campaign
is "about solutions," not feelings. She says she's the "only
candidate" left with a plan for universal health care. And she's
focusing on her opposition to trade agreements that she says have
drained thousands of jobs from the nation's industrial heartland.
The former first lady also tells reporters she's "sharpening
the contrast" with her rival Barack Obama, who's won the last 11
nominating contests. Polls show tight races in Ohio and Texas,
which vote Tuesday, along with Rhode Island and Vermont.
Clinton shrugs off suggestions the drawn-out contest will hurt
the Democratic Party in the fall election. She says the party will
unite once the primary battle is over.
Sunday, March 2, 2008
eeting Notes: (3-1-08) Final Project Ideas!
690 Meeting Notes: (3-1-08) Final Project Ideas!
Ideas: (Went around the circle- everyone gave ideas)
Sarah: Local perspective & Graphics (How-to that accompany everyone’s video packages)
Iris: Young voters, local… Satirical- should it be serious or satire? Would like to aim at Digital Insite, with video packs, & website that promotes it…
Dave: Facebook/Social Networking info, Kyle had info on blog-refer…
John: Get off
Brian: Comparing Ball state to
Main Question: Should we make a half-hour show? Digital Insite?
Ideas:
Burris & School House Rocks- Dancing down McGalliard?
Set up at NL, as our own studio… Watch “election” coverage on MySpace, Facebook, etc…
30 Minute show… Filler/bumper pieces… Political Variety Show?
Go home & watch: Attack of the show? (Per John’s idea…)
How are student elections at other Universities? Should we include them?
Decision: Digital Insite’s Special Report on the 2008 Presidential Election
Content:
- comparison of Networks (Tim & Kyle’s piece)Done re-edit (down)
- Electoral College (Sarah & Dave’s graphic)
- Religion in Politics (Brian)
- Online Election
- School House Rock!
- Young Voters
- Ball State Student Political Groups (Iris/John- Iris in studio)
-
Tasks for Projects:
Interactive: Creating site & repurposing all pieces
Video Pieces:
On Tuesday: We need to figure out a timeline & specific jobs for everyone.
March 4- MUST nail down specific ideas & who’s going to do what… (Need producers!)
March 17th (Spring Break!) All Writing Done & know SPECIFIC plans.. (outline of clock!)
Shooting: March 24/31
Building/fix: Week of April 14th
All Assets done: April 8
Final Final: April 22
Can we get Something Else/Kent State/Justin Gladis to get involved???
To-Do List- e-mail Dom/Rod Smith
- Talk to Kyle about
- Talk to Lori about
Goal: Feature Magazine show
Serious Build-in… Break in to Tim/Kyle’s package… Then Schoolhouse Rocks.. Iris international aspect?